Robust designs in non-inferiority three arm clinical trials with presence of heteroscedasticity

In this paper, we describe an adjusted method to facilitate a non-inferiority trial by a three-arm robust design. Because local optimal designs derived in Hasler et al. [2007] require knowledge about the ratios of the population variances and are not necessarily robust with respect to possible misspecifications, a maximin approach is adopted. This method requires only the specification of an interval for the of variance ratios and yields robust and efficient designs. We demonstrate that a maximin optimal design only depends on the boundary points specified for the intervals of the variance ratios and receive numerical and analytical solutions. The derived designs are robust and very efficient for statistical analysis in non inferiority three arm trials. --maximin design,robust design,non-inferiority,three arm design,gold design trials,randomized clinical trial

Assessing the similarity of dose response and target doses in two non-overlapping subgroups

We consider two problems that are attracting increasing attention in clinical dose finding studies. First, we assess the similarity of two non-linear regression models for two non-overlapping subgroups of patients over a restricted covariate space. To this end, we derive a confidence interval for the maximum difference between the two given models. If this confidence interval excludes the equivalence margins, similarity of dose response can be claimed. Second, we address the problem of demonstrating the similarity of two target doses for two non-overlapping subgroups, using again a confidence interval based approach. We illustrate the proposed methods with a real case study and investigate their operating characteristics (coverage probabilities, Type I error rates, power) via simulation.Comment: Keywords and Phrases: equivalence testing, multiregional trial, target dose estimation, subgroup analyse

Long-term safety of tiotropium/olodaterol Respimat® in patients with moderate-to-very severe COPD and renal impairment in the TONADO® studies

Introduction: The safety, lung function efficacy, and symptomatic benefits of combined tiotropium and olodaterol in patients with COPD were established in the 1-year TONADO (R) studies (NCT01431274; NCT01431287). As tiotropium is predominantly excreted by the kidneys, the long-term safety profile of tiotropium/olodaterol was investigated in patients with renal impairment in a prespecified safety analysis of the TONADO studies. Methods: These were 2 replicate, randomized, double-blind, parallel-group, 52-week Phase III studies that assessed tiotropium/olodaterol compared with tiotropium or olodaterol alone (all via Respimat (R)) in patients with moderate-to-very severe COPD. In this analysis, renal impairment was defined as mild (creatinine clearance [CLcr] 60-89 mL/min), moderate (CLcr 30-59 mL/min) or severe (CLcr 15-29 mL/min). Adverse events (AEs) were pooled from both studies. Results: Of 3,041 patients included in this analysis, 1,333 (43.8%) had mild, 404 (13.3%) had moderate, and 5 (0.2%) had severe renal impairment; these were distributed equally between treatment groups. Almost one-quarter of all treated patients (23.4%) had a history of cardiac disorder, 45.6% had hypertension, and 13.3% had glucose metabolism disorders, including diabetes. AEs with olodaterol, tiotropium, and tiotropium/olodaterol occurred in 75.1%, 70.8%, and 72.0% of patients with no renal impairment, 75.7%, 74.0%, and 73.3% with mild renal impairment, and 84.3%, 79.5%, and 79.7% with moderate renal impairment, respectively. There was no notable effect of renal impairment on the proportion of patients with an AE, and no differences were observed between tiotropium/olodaterol versus the monocomponents. There was no difference in the incidence of major adverse cardiac events, renal and urinary tract AEs, or potential anticholinergic effects with increasing severity of renal impairment. Conclusion: Over half the patients enrolled in the TONADO studies had renal impairment, and there was a high level of pre-existing cardiovascular comorbidity. The safety and tolerability of tiotropium/olodaterol is comparable to the monocomponents, irrespective of the level of renal impairment

Effects of an exercise programme for chronically ill and mobility-restricted elderly with structured support by the general practitioner's practice (HOMEfit) - study protocol of a randomised controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Exercise programmes can be administered successfully as therapeutic agents to patients with a number of chronic diseases and help to improve physical functioning in older adults. Usually, such programmes target either healthy and mobile community-dwelling seniors or elderly individuals living in nursing institutions or special residences. Chronically ill or mobility-restricted individuals, however, are difficult to reach when they live in their own homes.</p> <p>A pilot study has shown good feasibility of a home-based exercise programme that is delivered to this target group through cooperation between general practitioners and exercise therapists. A logical next step involves evaluation of the effects of the programme.</p> <p>Methods/design</p> <p>The study is designed as a randomised controlled trial. We plan to recruit 210 patients (≥ 70 years) in about 15 general practices.</p> <p>The experimental intervention (duration 12 weeks)-a multidimensional home-based exercise programme-is delivered to the participant by an exercise therapist in counselling sessions at the general practitioner's practice and on the telephone. It is based on methods and strategies for facilitating behaviour change according to the Health Action Process Approach (HAPA). The control intervention-baseline physical activities-differs from the experimental intervention with regard to content of the counselling sessions as well as to content and frequency of the promoted activities.</p> <p>Primary outcome is functional lower body strength measured by the "chair-rise" test. Secondary outcomes are: physical function (battery of motor tests), physical activity (step count), health-related quality of life (SF-8), fall-related self-efficacy (FES-I), and exercise self-efficacy (SSA-Scale).</p> <p>The hypothesis that there will be differences between the two groups (experimental/control) with respect to post-interventional chair-rise time will be tested using an ANCOVA with chair-rise time at baseline, treatment group, and study centre effects as explanatory variables. Analysis of the data will be undertaken using the principle of intention-to-treat.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials <a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN17727272">ISRCTN17727272</a>.</p

Differing severities of acute exacerbations of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF): insights from the INPULSIS® trials

Background: Given the broad definition of an acute exacerbation of IPF, it is likely that acute exacerbations are heterogeneous in their aetiology, severity and clinical course. We used pooled data from the INPULSIS® trials of nintedanib versus placebo to investigate whether acute exacerbations reported as serious adverse events were associated with higher mortality than those reported as non-serious adverse events and to assess the effect of nintedanib on these types of events. Methods: Adverse events considered by an investigator to be an acute exacerbation were adjudicated as a confirmed acute exacerbation, suspected acute exacerbation, or not an acute exacerbation. Time to first investigator-reported acute exacerbation or confirmed/suspected acute exacerbation reported as a serious adverse event or non-serious adverse event over the 52-week treatment period was assessed post-hoc. Deaths were assessed based on data collected over the 52-week treatment period. Results: Of 63 patients who had ≥1 investigator-reported acute exacerbation, 48 (76.2%) had a first acute exacerbation reported as a serious adverse event. Thirty-six (3.4%) patients had ≥1 confirmed/suspected acute exacerbation, of whom 31 had a first event reported as a serious adverse event. Investigator-reported acute exacerbations reported as serious adverse events occurred in 23 patients in the nintedanib group and 26 in the placebo group. Confirmed/suspected acute exacerbations reported as serious adverse events occurred in 10 and 21 patients in these groups, respectively. Nintedanib significantly reduced the risk of a first acute exacerbation reported as a serious adverse event (HR 0.57 [95% CI: 0.32, 0.99]; p = 0.0476) and the risk of a first confirmed/suspected acute exacerbation reported as a serious adverse event (HR 0.30 [95% CI: 0.14, 0.64]; p = 0.0019) versus placebo. A higher proportion of patients with investigator-reported acute exacerbations reported as serious adverse events died than patients with acute exacerbations reported as non-serious adverse events (61.2% versus 7.1%). Conclusion: Different severities of acute exacerbation of IPF may exist. Acute exacerbations reported as serious adverse events in the INPULSIS® trials were associated with high mortality. Nintedanib significantly reduced the risk of acute exacerbations reported as serious adverse events. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01335464 and NCT01335477

Profound influence of different methods for determination of the ankle brachial index on the prevalence estimate of peripheral arterial disease

BACKGROUND: The ankle brachial index (ABI) is an efficient tool for objectively documenting the presence of lower extremity peripheral arterial disease (PAD). However, different methods exist for ABI calculation, which might result in varying PAD prevalence estimates. To address this question, we compared five different methods of ABI calculation using Doppler ultrasound in 6,880 consecutive, unselected primary care patients ≥65 years in the observational getABI study. METHODS: In all calculations, the average systolic pressure of the right and left brachial artery was used as the denominator (however, in case of discrepancies of ≥10 mmHg, the higher reading was used). As nominators, the following pressures were used: the highest arterial ankle pressure of each leg (method #1), the lowest pressure (#2), only the systolic pressure of the tibial posterior artery (#3), only the systolic pressure of the tibial anterior artery (#4), and the systolic pressure of the tibial posterior artery after exercise (#5). An ABI < 0.9 was regarded as evidence of PAD. RESULTS: The estimated prevalence of PAD was lowest using method #1 (18.0%) and highest using method #2 (34.5%), while the differences in methods #3–#5 were less pronounced. Method #1 resulted in the most accurate estimation of PAD prevalence in the general population. Using the different approaches, the odds ratio for the association of PAD and cardiovascular (CV) events varied between 1.7 and 2.2. CONCLUSION: The data demonstrate that different methods for ABI determination clearly affect the estimation of PAD prevalence, but not substantially the strength of the associations between PAD and CV events. Nonetheless, to achieve improved comparability among different studies, one mode of calculation should be universally applied, preferentially method #1

Recruiting Hard-to-Reach Subjects for Exercise Interventions: A Multi-Centre and Multi-Stage Approach Targeting General Practitioners and Their Community-Dwelling and Mobility-Limited Patients

The general practitioner (GP)’s practice appears to be an ideal venue for recruiting community-dwelling older adults with limited mobility. This study (Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN17727272) aimed at evaluating the recruiting process used for a multi-centre exercise intervention (HOMEfit). Each of six steps resulted in an absolute number of patients (N1–N6). Sex and age (for N4–N6) and reasons for dropping out were assessed. Patient database screening (N1–N3) at 15 GP practices yielded N1 = 5,990 patients aged 70 and above who had visited their GP within the past 6 months, N2 = 5,467 after exclusion of institutionalised patients, N3 = 1,545 patients eligible. Using a pre-defined limitation algorithm in order to conserve the practices’ resources resulted in N4 = 1,214 patients (80.3 ± 5.6 years, 68% female), who were then officially invited to the final assessment of eligibility at the GP’s practice. N5 = 434 patients (79.5 ± 5.4 years, 69% female) attended the practice screening (n = 13 of whom had not received an official invitation). Finally, N6 = 209 (79.8 ± 5.2 years, 74% female) were randomised after they were judged eligible and had given their written informed consent to participate in the randomised controlled trial (overall recruitment rate: 4.4%). The general strategy of utilising a GP’s practice to recruit the target group proved beneficial. The data and experiences presented here can help planners of future exercise-intervention studies

Survival analysis for AdVerse events with VarYing follow-up times (SAVVY) -- comparison of adverse event risks in randomized controlled trials

Analyses of adverse events (AEs) are an important aspect of the evaluation of experimental therapies. The SAVVY (Survival analysis for AdVerse events with Varying follow-up times) project aims to improve the analyses of AE data in clinical trials through the use of survival techniques appropriately dealing with varying follow-up times, censoring, and competing events (CE). In an empirical study including seventeen randomized clinical trials the effect of varying follow-up times, censoring, and competing events on comparisons of two treatment arms with respect to AE risks is investigated. The comparisons of relative risks (RR) of standard probability-based estimators to the gold-standard Aalen-Johansen estimator or hazard-based estimators to an estimated hazard ratio (HR) from Cox regression are done descriptively, with graphical displays, and using a random effects meta-analysis on AE level. The influence of different factors on the size of the bias is investigated in a meta-regression. We find that for both, avoiding bias and categorization of evidence with respect to treatment effect on AE risk into categories, the choice of the estimator is key and more important than features of the underlying data such as percentage of censoring, CEs, amount of follow-up, or value of the gold-standard RR. There is an urgent need to improve the guidelines of reporting AEs so that incidence proportions are finally replaced by the Aalen-Johansen estimator - rather than by Kaplan-Meier - with appropriate definition of CEs. For RRs based on hazards, the HR based on Cox regression has better properties than the ratio of incidence densities

Hospital-based, prospective, multicentre surveillance to determine the incidence of intussusception in children aged below 15 years in Germany

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A new vaccine against Rotavirus (RV) gastroenteritis was introduced in Germany in 2006. In 1997 the first RV vaccine was withdrawn due to an increased incidence in intussusception (IS). Thus, an accurate estimation of the incidence of IS is important for post-licensure surveillance.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>IS-Data were obtained from the 'Erhebungseinheit für seltene pädiatrische Erkrankungen Deutschland' (ESPED, German surveillance unit for rare pediatric diseases) collaborations' central register where all cases of intussusception in Germany for the years 2006 and 2007 are collected (n = 1200). In order to obtain an unbiased estimate of the incidence, it is necessary to determine the population under risk out of which these cases originated, and the proportion of real cases not reported to the registry (underreporting). In order to assess underreporting, a random sample of 31 hospitals was re-assessed by an outside reviewer. The estimation of incidence was done using a single Maximum-Likelihood (ML) estimator based on data from both the registry and the sample.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The uncorrected observed incidence was calculated to be 26.6/100,000 child-years for children below 1 year old, 23.8 for those below 2 years old, and 5.2 for those below 15 years old. The review revealed a mean reporting quota of about 41% and the ML approach yielded an incidence of 51.5/100,000 child-years (95%CI [41.7;61.1]) for children below 2 years of age.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>While substantial under-reporting led to very conservative estimates of the IS incidence, the approach described here allows an accurate estimation of IS incidence including corresponding confidence bands. Therefore, ML estimation is a straightforward instrument to derive stable, unbiased estimates in epidemiological studies with incomplete data.</p